Not the best odds. But analysts say there is one way Barak could win: cut a peace deal with Yasir Arafat before the vote. Last week, when it looked like his tattered coalition lacked the numbers to defeat the bill calling for early elections, he decided to join the groundswell. That makes one final push for peace even more imperative. “If Barak doesn’t get a peace agreement it will be considerably harder for him to win an election,” says Israeli political scientist Mark Heller. Polls concur, showing Netanyahu leading Barak by at least 15 points. It must be sweet vengeance for Netanyahu, trounced by Barak in last year’s election after a bitter campaign. But surveys also show most Israelis want a deal with the Palestinians–which they’re more likely to get under Barak than Netanyahu. With Parliament expected to set a May date for the vote, the prime minister has about five months to lock up an agreement and save his career.
It won’t be easy. Palestinians and Israelis have been meeting quietly in recent weeks and at least one official says the two sides have narrowed gaps that doomed talks at Camp David last July. “There are some signs that Israel is ready to move beyond its summit positions especially with regard to Jewish settlements,” said Palestinian negotiator Nabil Shaath. But two months of violence have sharply eroded trust on both sides. An Israeli security source confirmed the contacts but said the toughest questions–the fate of Jerusalem and the right of return for Palestinian refugees–are not even on the table. Barak suggested publicly last week that Israelis and Palestinians postpone those issues and sign a partial deal with a provision for a small Palestinian state. Arafat’s response: thanks, but no thanks.
Some officials in Washington have floated the idea of another Camp David summit, this time with more preparation. But time is short. “Even if elections are five months away, the window for Barak will remain open for only about a month,” said Shibley Telhami, a Middle East expert at the University of Maryland, who believes only Bill Clinton can goad the two sides to an agreement. “The next U.S. president, no matter who he is, is not going to be in a position to tackle the issue.”
Ironically, some Palestinians prefer Netanyahu. As prime minister, the right-wing Netanyahu haggled hard with Palestinians over every inch of West Bank territory he ceded. In the process, he earned the image abroad as the man who hobbled efforts for peace. Shaath says Palestinians would have an easier time bringing international pressure to bear on Netanyahu. “If there’s a chance for peace, Barak is better,” he says. “If there’s no chance for peace, Netanyahu is much better.”
There’s still a chance party rivals could prevent a Bibi-Barak rematch. In Labor, possible challengers to Barak include lawmakers Avraham Burg and Uzi Baram, doves untested in negotiations but popular with the party faithful. Netanyahu will have to do battle with Ariel Sharon, the current Likud leader who touched off the latest round of fighting with a visit in September to a Jerusalem shrine.
But most analysts think Barak and Netanyahu will be their parties’ nominees. It promises to be a nasty fight. The men have a complex relationship. Netanyahu served under Barak 30 years ago in Sayeret Matkal, the Army’s most elite reconnaissance unit. Both are Israel-born but Netanyahu’s pedigree–his father was a pillar of Israel’s right wing at a time when the left had a lock on power–has made him a consummate outsider, relentlessly carping about the privileges of the country’s leftist elite. Barak, who was raised on a kibbutz and climbed Army ranks to become chief of staff, is part of that elite.
Netanyahu was in California last week when Barak agreed to early elections. Associates say the former Likud leader will wait for Parliament to decided on a date for the vote–probably in the next few weeks–before announcing his return to politics. The bumper stickers won’t wait. “Elections are good for business,” said Rudin, the printer. Right now they look like they’ll be good for Netanyahu too.
