The nomination contests aren’t over, at least on the Republican side. But already the next–middle–phase of the campaign has begun. Gore’s allies will soon hit the airwaves with attacks on Bush. The issues will include pollution in Texas, gun control, abortion–and Bush’s cheery visit to a university known for its virulent anti-Roman Catholic, anti-black, anti-gay orthodoxy. If Bush can sweep John McCain in next week’s Southern primaries, his allies plan to take over the GOP apparatus with the same game plan: to carpet-bomb the opposition long before the fall campaign. The GOP theme: Gore didn’t come clean about that Buddhist temple visit, so why trust him on anything?
The race for the White House used to be a two-act play, a primary season and a general election. But Bill Clinton added a middle act in 1996. Flush with cash, writing advertising scripts with Dick Morris at his side, Clinton garroted Bob Dole’s broke and directionless campaign with millions of dollars of local television spots, placed in key states in spring and summer. Dole got an infusion of cash after the GOP convention. By then it was too late.
Now everyone knows you have to win Act II to live through Act III. Gore has the easier mission. Bill Bradley fizzed fast, and wasn’t able to push Gore far to the left on key issues. Gore’s minions in the Democratic Party can’t raise as much in unlimited “soft” donations as the GOP, but they’ll do fine. In 1999 the GOP raised $28 million; the Democrats $20 million. And parties aren’t the only entities that can raise that brand of cash. “Independent advocacy groups” can, too. Democratic allies have a number of hot-button issues (abortion, gun control, tobacco) to raise money for spots of their own.
But it’s Bob Jones that truly excites Gore operatives. The reason: Catholic voters. Bush’s visit to the vehemently anti-Catholic Jones college is a wedge big enough to drive a candidacy through. The university last week abandoned its opposition to interracial dating, but the rest of its dogma remains intact. The Gore team knows that Catholics are the key constituency in swing states–Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania. They are resisting the temptation to do ads on the subject–for now. But they’re delighted. “For a long time we were on the wrong side of the cultural issues with the Catholic voters,” said Gore aide Chris Lehane. “This time, we’re on the right side.”
Bush’s Act II has the more challenging script. First, of course, he has to survive his battle with McCain, who accused Bush of using underhanded advertising tactics in New York and California. Even if Bush prevails, he’ll have to use Act II to somehow bind together a party more seriously split than at any time since 1976, when Ronald Reagan nearly toppled President Gerald Ford.
Bush will use new party leadership and fresh money to try to heal the rift. One likely new leader is Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, a shrewd mainstream figure who helped Bush win a pivotal primary victory last week. Because Bush declined to take matching money from the government, he’s free to try to raise–andspend–as much cash as he can between now and the GOP convention. He will stage an urgent series of fund-raisers to bring in new “hard” cash for his campaign, and soft money for the GOP.
Catholic outreach is another priority. “That’s going to take some work,” concedes Charlie Black, a top Bush adviser. Bush began last week, expressing “regret” that he hadn’t condemned the school’s anti-Catholic bias in his speech there. Bush will rely on the fastest-growing bloc of Catholic voters–Hispanics. “He’s comfortable with us,” declares Carlos Ramirez, the Democratic mayor of El Paso, Texas. Bush’s new strategy was on display in Georgia last week. Ralph Reed, the Christian conservative leader, literally hid behind the stage while Bush was happily answering an audience question in Spanish.
Bush’s allies will try to paint the vice president as a flip-flopper. They will replay Bradley’s attacks on Gore’s truthfulness, and retrace the fund-raising trail. Gore says that he didn’t know the Buddhist-temple event was a fund-raiser. But documents keep surfacing to show he should have. In fact, NEWSWEEK has learned, Secret Service documents show the Buddhist temple was labeled a “fund-raising luncheon.” Gore “should have known” as much, said spokesman Lehane, “but didn’t.” In any case, he said, voters have rejected two GOP attempts–in 1996 and 1998–to make scandal the centerpiece of the campaign. Another Gore insider was more blasé. “They can have the Buddhist temple, if they want it,” he said. “We’ll take Bob Jones.”
