They came in tanks, planes and armored combat vehicles–several thousand troops from Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia. Why? To save President Laurent Kabila, a man whose rule grew so sour that Rwanda and Uganda–both of which helped him topple Mobutu Sese Seko 15 months ago–are now sponsoring a rebellion to destroy him. Kabila’s new allies have no love for him. But they see a fractured Congo as a worse option, and so stormed to his rescue two weeks ago just as the capital, Kinshasa, seemed on the verge of falling. Now the war is likely to go on, as some of Africa’s most powerful–and most stubborn–nations face off and regional alliances come into play.
Kabila in many ways brought the war on himself. Welcomed as the man who could clean up Mobutu’s mess, Kabila promptly restored Zaire’s old name, Congo. Then he jailed political opponents and stacked the government with relatives and members of his own ethnic group. The bigger problem was what Kabila did not do: stop Ugandan and Rwandan rebels from using Kivu in eastern Congo as a base to attack across the border. “We thought if he was given some support and time that he could turn things around,” says a top Rwandan military officer, “only to realize that he is not different from Mobutu.” Once that reality settled in, Congolese began to see another problem: too many Tutsis–both Congolese and Rwandan–in senior government jobs. In late July, Kabila bowed to popular pressure and ordered them to leave. On Aug. 2, the 16,000-man 10th Brigade of his army mutinied–with a push from Rwanda’s Tutsi-led military, foreign diplomats believe. The insurrection spread and, with foreign help, the rebels quickly captured a large chunk of the east and several key points west of Kinshasa.
The turnaround began with the arrival of Kabila’s allies. Angola quickly took back the military base in the town of Kitona, which the rebels had been using as a staging ground. Zimbabwean and Congolese soldiers defended the airport outside Kinshasa. The capital itself erupted in fierce fighting that spread through the neighborhoods, but by Saturday it looked like Kabila and his allies had crushed the rebel assault. The government claimed it had killed or imprisoned thousands of rebels, including Rwandan soldiers. Suddenly Kabila seemed not doomed but invigorated. When the rebels announced support for a ceasefire, Kabila said: not until the “foreign invaders”–Rwandans, Ugandans and, by implication, Congolese Tutsis–leave the country.
That rhetoric has struck a deadly chord of nationalism in Congo. Government radio broadcast such messages as “be extra vigilant and track down the enemy wherever he hides.” When the rebellion began, Congolese Tutsis in Kinshasa were beaten and killed by mobs. Hundreds have disappeared, and thousands more are in hiding. But last week, as the rebels attacked Kinshasa, it was the non-Tutsi Congolese soldiers allied with the Tutsi-led rebellion who were targets of civilians. Said one local news cameraman: “I saw about 40 rebels, all burned by civilians.” While the government fought rebels for control of Kinshasa, Rwanda called the clashes the beginning of a genocide. Kabila does appear to have made some nasty friends. An internal United Nations report provided to NEWSWEEK says that Rwandan Hutu militiamen and former government troops–the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide of Tutsis in Rwanda–have recently crossed into Congo from refugee camps in the Republic of Congo, a separate country to the northwest. For their part, the Rwandans have teamed up with elements of Mobutu’s former army.
Kabila’s most important allies are Angola and Zimbabwe, which have two of the continent’s best-equipped armies. They want to keep Congo whole for economic reasons: Angola wants to build an oil pipeline through part of Congo, and over the last year Zimbabwe has made several investments there. But more important, Angolan authorities believe that a balkanized Congo would provide sanctuary for UNITA, the rebels who’ve fought Angola for two decades.
The main voice for peace has come from South African President Nelson Mandela. But even with the moral authority he commands, a peace deal seems unlikely. The most important question is whether Kabila’s allies will fight to help him regain eastern Congo. Airstrikes are possible; already there are reports of bombings outside the rebel-held city of Kisangani. But it’s doubtful Kabila’s supporters will commit the thousands of ground troops required to drive the rebels out. If Kabila plans to make good on his threat to take the war back to Kigali, he’ll probably have to do it alone. That would mean fighting–and losing–a war with Rwanda, a country that in many ways views itself as the Israel of Africa. Both are small nations with strong militaries and leaders who believe buffer zones offer the best protection from hostile neighbors. Kivu could become Rwanda’s West Bank.
It would not be a peaceful place. The rebels have not been received with enthusiasm. Their main allies, the Congolese Tutsis, are a minority that has never been fully accepted by the population. There are reports of clashes between the rebels and local militias. Last week more than 200 people were massacred at a Catholic mission and village churches near the city of Uvira. The Vatican blamed the killings on rebels trying to wipe out local support for the government. A senior humanitarian official with long experience in the region says: “The long-term confrontation will be in the eastern half of Congo.” Then there’s the rest of central and southern Africa.
